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Presidential Uncertainty, a GOP Senate and General Observations of the Week

What to Know About the Donald Trump–Joe Biden Debates - The Atlantic

Topic #1: As of the time of this writing, it is still unclear who won the race for President on Election Day, though it looks likely that Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States.

Thoughts and Observations:

  • If President Trump does indeed lose this election, it will be bitterly disappointing. For people who truly love their freedom and love this country, a Joe Biden presidency can only be disheartening.
  • As big of a letdown as that result might be, we on the Right should be at least be somewhat optimistic about the future of the country.
    • History will show that no president has had to endure such opposition as that of President Trump.
      • He was the victim of the biggest hoax in our country’s history with the Russia Hoax.
      • He was impeached for essentially being abrasive and being himself, as evidenced by the fact that the Articles of Impeachment against him didn’t include a single, actual crime.
      • He endured the most negative media coverage (90+% negative) of any president for which they can measure.
      • He dealt with the single-most economically challenging event in human history with the COVID-19 pandemic.
      • Yet here we are several days after the election, and we’re still not even sure if he lost. It truly was a remarkable showing; bravo Mr. President.
    • In spite of four years of the mainstream media accusing Trump of every form of bigotry imaginable, Trump saw his percentage of voters increase in every demographic but one – white men. Blacks, Hispanics, women, the LGBTQ community, and so on; every other group saw an elevation in the percentage of Trump voters  in 2020 compared to 2016, in spite of the fierce efforts to smear him. Remarkable.
    • The GOP now needs to seize on Trump’s momentum and build on those results:
      • Don’t pander to minorities, treat them like any other American.
      • Black folks don’t want to defund the police and they don’t want rampant crime.
      • Hispanics don’t want open borders, and they respect the rule-of-law.
      • Not all women are radical feminists, and you don’t have to support abortion-on-demand to get them to vote for you.
      • Wise-up Republicans, and wake up.
  • Results on Election Night looked extremely favorable for President Trump, but each day we’ve seen his lead evaporate. While it’s certainly understandable that certain states wanted to be extra careful about potentially spreading COVID at polling stations and adjusted their voting processes as a result, there were other steps they could’ve taken. Did those adjustments result in voter fraud? We’ll see, but the way those precautions appear to have drawn out the counting of ballots is driving speculation of voter fraud. Even ardent Democrats have to admit: it doesn’t look good when results trickle in and just happen to favor Biden across the board.
  • The real question to be asked is this – Did reducing in-person voting actually result in suppressing the spread of COVID? I’m going to go out on a limb and make a prediction. States like Florida that made only minimal adjustments to their voting processes and had massive Election Day turnouts will not see any noticeable uptick in COVID cases compared to states like Pennsylvania and Michigan who had significant mail-in balloting, or New Jersey which was exclusively mail-in. Write it down folks, you heard it here first.

Topic #2: It’s also uncertain who will control the Senate during the next Congress, but it appears probable that Republicans will hold a slim majority.

Thoughts and Observations:

  • At this point it appears likely that Republicans will have 50 Senate seats nailed down by this weekend, once North Carolina and Alaska finish with their results. That will leave only two undetermined seats in Georgia.
  • There will probably be a run-off election right after New Year’s Day for both of those seats. There’s a very good possibility that Republicans will win both seats, but they will only need to win one to retain control of the Senate. It’s going to happen – we will have a GOP-led Senate, and Mitch McConnell will be the Senate Majority Leader once again.
  • The prospect that Biden will be faced with a Senate led by the opposition would be the first time in 36 years that a newly-elected Democrat President will enter office without a Congress controlled by his own party in both houses. A pretty incredible factoid.
  • The fact that Biden – or perhaps more accurately Kamala Harris – will have a Republican Senate to deal with cannot be overstated:
    • McConnell will decide the chairpersons of each committee, and committees are the way in which the Senate runs. Those committees decide what to investigate, which judicial nominees should be brought to the floor for a vote, and what hearings should be held.
    • There is no way that Biden/Harris will be able to force their radical left agenda through. They will not be packing the courts. They will not be eliminating the filibuster. They will not be adding Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. as states. To put it bluntly, there will be gridlock, and that is a good thing.

Topic #3: In the House of Representatives, it is clear that Democrats will retain their majority, but they will lose approximately fifteen seats to Republicans.

Thoughts and Observations:

  • It seems likely that the Democrats will have only a 17-seat majority, which is extremely narrow. There will be Democrats heading up the various House Committees again, but they may have to back off of some of their more radical ideas if they expect to get everyone in their caucus to vote accordingly. Either way, nothing radical will get through the Senate.
  • There has been talk of Nancy Pelosi being ousted as House Speaker. It would be hard not to smile if that happens, but it will only be a positive development if her successor is more moderate, and that seems unlikely. My bet is that Pelosi remains as Speaker, and the usual suspects (Schiff, Waters, Nadler, et al) will be chairpersons again.
  • Such a narrow majority, combined with the fact that midterm elections always favor the party that is out of power in the White House, and things have to be looking good for Republicans to seize control of the House again in 2022. The further Democrats go to the left and the more radical they become, the more seats the GOP will take.
  • If The Squad increases their influence, then Republicans could have a bigger swing in seats in 2022 than they had in Obama’s first midterm election in 2010 when they surpassed 60 seats that were taken from Democrats. It would be so much better for our country if Democrats moderated, but I have serious doubts. Recent history dictates that they will double-down and get even more radical. If so, Republicans should be able to reap the rewards.

Topic #4: From a prediction standpoint, pollsters and the media got this election wrong on a monumental scale, and both have been exposed once again.  

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 Thoughts and Observations:

  • The Real Clear Politics average of national polls as of Monday showed Biden winning the popular vote by over 8%, but the actual margin is going to be about 2.7%, which is well outside the margin-of-error. They got it wrong, by a lot.
  • When voters feel their candidate is doomed to defeat, they are less energized and less likely to vote; obviously. After what we saw in 2016, is there any doubt that pollsters’ inaccuracies have ulterior motives? This was no accident, it was intentional.
  • In the Senate races, the accuracy of the polls was even worse. The media and their pollsters told us that four Republican senators who won comfortably – Mitch McConnell (KY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Susan Collins (ME), and Joni Ernst (IA) – were very real contenders for being unseated. Media talking heads were acting like a Democrat-controlled Senate was a foregone conclusion, even on Election Day.
  • Frank Luntz, a respected political polling expert and consultant, speculated in late-October, “If pollsters get it wrong again, then the polling industry is done.” Well, guess what Frank… they got it really, really wrong… again.

Topic #5: There have been widespread accusations of voter fraud, primarily in the “swing states.”

Thoughts and Observations:

  • It’s hard not to be skeptical of the results we’re seeing, and there have been some stories that have been particularly alarming. I think overall, however, we need to let the Trump Campaign pursue their legal avenues and see what evidence shakes out. We need to be careful about calling the election illegitimate without evidence like our Democrat friends have been doing for four years.
  • For those locations that clearly have seen voter fraud, Attorney General Barr will need to move fast in launching investigations and/or appointing special counsels or prosecutors, and he should by all means do so. Any voter fraud undermines the confidence of Americans in our electoral system, and such incidents need to be taken extremely seriously.
  • It is very disappointing that there aren’t more GOP leaders out in front of this issue, and are instead leaving it to professional pundits. Any Republican Senator or Representative looking for a bigger role in the future, now is your time to step up. Our elections must be protected.

PF Whalen