There are certain demographics that are critical for the success of Republicans and Democrats. For instance, if Republicans want to succeed at the ballot box they must do well with evangelical Christians and non-college-educated white men. If they perform poorly with those two groups, they’re going to have a rough time on Election Day.
Similarly, Democrats rely on college-educated single white women, Hispanics, and black folks. If they lose significant ground in any of those identity groups, they’re likely going to be in trouble. The way things are looking right now, Democratic support has eroded considerably in not just one of those demographics, but two. And that news could spell doom for Democrats in November at levels never seen before.
An NPR/Marist poll which was conducted last week details the problem for Democrats. As we’ve noted previously, the poll showed President Joe Biden’s approval rating at only 41%, a slight improvement over some other recent polls, but still underwater by double digits. But the fact is, Joe Biden isn’t going to be on the ballot in November, but the entire House of Representatives is, as well as 34 seats in the U.S. Senate.
So, as bad as Biden is doing, it’s the numbers relating to the Congressional ballots in November’s midterm elections that are the priority. Therefore, the key question asked by the poll of 1,377 adults was this: “If this year’s election for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district.” And when we analyze the data from the responses to this question, the results are staggering.
The deterioration of Hispanic support for Democrats has been well-documented, and that bleeding appears to be ongoing, with a complete turnaround. According to the poll, 52% of all Hispanics say they would vote for the Republican, with only 39% choosing the Democrat. Compare those numbers to just seven months ago, when in September Democrats were chosen 54% of the time and Republicans only 28%. That’s not just a significant shift away from Democrats, it’s cataclysmic. But the news gets even worse for the Democrats.
For black voters, when asked that same question in September, only 3% opted for their Republican Congressional candidate. But last week’s poll shows that number all the way up to 20%, with Democrats’ support dropping from 80% in September compared to just 72% last week. If possible, those numbers are even more devastating to Democrats than the numbers for Hispanics.
Inevitably, there’s a direct correlation between Biden’s performance and the overall performance of Democrats. Biden is, after all, the leader of the party. But these poll results show a deeper concern for Democrats. Americans – all Americans, not just white folks – aren’t buying what the Dems are selling, and it’s not all about Joe Biden.
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It’s not just non-college-educated men and evangelical Christians who want a safe and secure southern border, all Americans do. The same can be said for a strong economy, a robust and assertive foreign policy, common-sense policies in our schools, and a logical approach to dealing with COVID. These are priorities for virtually all Americans. And as hard as they have tried to divide us via identity politics, those efforts appear to be far less successful than they had thought, and Democrats look like they’re poised for a bloodbath in the fall.
By Jess Lawson
Jess Lawson is a regular contributor to The Blue State Conservative and a passionate, conservative millennial who loves America.
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