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Red Wave, Yes Or No? Breaking Down The Polls, Betting Odds, And More Data

We are now a little more than two months away from the all-important 2022 midterms. It may decide the future of America. Many people are expecting a “bigly” Red Wave to sweep over Congress and many Governorships across America.

A month ago, we looked at some polling data, and this “bigly” Red Wave looked like a good possibility. However, we have been detecting some changes since then in the data. Is the Red Wave sputtering?

We first will look at some betting odds data from PredictIt. In this first chart below, we see that Republicans are still set to take the house control, though the odds are in decline.

PredictIt House Control

What is disturbing is that Republican Senate Control, which was a good possibility to happen a month ago, has now flipped to a decidedly favorable possibility for Democrats to remain in control of the Senate. We can see this flip in the chart below.

PredictIt Senate Control

The betting odds from PredictIt seem to coincide with other polling, such as from FiveThirtyEight, though perhaps traders are merely using polls to trade. See the Senate forecast from polling and learn more here.

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538 Senate Control Polling

So what is happening, and what are the issues moving these betting odds and polls for the 2022 midterms? For the midterm voting issues, more voters cite the economy as “very important” than any other issue – see the following two charts from PEW and learn more here.

2022 Midterm Issues

With a little less than three months until the midterm elections, the economy leads voters’ list of issues in the midterm elections: About three-quarters of registered voters (77%) say the economy is very important to their vote in the 2022 congressional election, making it the top issue out of the 15 asked about in the survey.

About six-in-ten voters say that gun policy (62%), violent crime (60%), health care (60%), voting policies (59%), and education (58%) are very important to their vote.

In the wake of the landmark Supreme Court decision on abortion earlier this year, Supreme Court appointments (58%) and abortion (56%) also rank similarly high on voters’ issue lists.

Energy policy (53%) and immigration (48%) are named by about half of voters as very important issues to their vote. Smaller shares cite foreign policy (45%), the size and scope of the federal government (42%), climate change (40%) and issues around race and ethnicity (35%) as very important to their midterm vote. Roughly a quarter of voters (28%) now say the coronavirus outbreak will be very important to their vote, the lowest of 15 issues asked about in the survey.

Since March, Democrats have become much more likely to say that several issues, including abortion and gun policy, are very important to their vote. By comparison, no issue has substantially grown in importance among Republicans.

On the issue of abortion, 46% of Democratic registered voters said in a March survey that abortion was a very important issue to their vote, months before the Supreme Court’s decision that the US Constitution does not guarantee a right to an abortion. Today, 71% of Democrats say this, making it one of the most important issues for Democrats. Among Republicans, there has been little change on this issue since March.

2022 Midterm Issues TrendsSo what could have caused this shift? See below for a few ideas – perhaps you have others that you could put in the comment section of this post.

  • Through Fed action helping Democrats, they have successfully slowed the pace of inflation while hiding the inevitable recession coming. Gas prices are down a bit from the highs. See here in, “Whoa, Biden Says Zero Inflation and No Recession – Just In Time for the Midterms?” Many Democrats have been gaslighted and believe the economy won’t be a problem in the future.
  • GOP leadership quality – the mirror opposite of what Mitch McConnell said, “Republicans may not win Senate control, citing ‘candidate quality.” With leaders like this, who needs enemies?
  • The abortion issue has rallied many Democrats.
  • The media has been working overtime to demonize Republicans and conservatives. Democrats often call their political foes Nazis, and is echoed by the media – see here one example.

But politics is fickle, and two months is a lifetime in politics. October surprises can go either way and can play out often in a boomerang fashion. Some ideas that could derail the current Democratic narratives?

  • A geopolitical event overseas could blow up in Joe Biden’s face – it has happened before with Joe. There are many hot spots around the world – e.g., Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East, to name a few.
  • The Fed miscalculates, the economy tanks further, and/or inflation resurges even more. This could also come from overseas economic issues reflected back into the US – i.e., the European energy crisis.
  • Biden’s health.
  • The crime wave continues and accelerates.
  • “Black Swan” events such as natural disasters or other events that cause key global players to go down.
  • As mentioned before, a negative to the Democrat’s October surprise, though media will try to suppress it.

The point here is that if the GOP and conservatives wish to fully take back Congress and stop the abysmal Joe Biden administration, now is not the time to set back on our heels and think a Red Wave is inevitable. Engage in alternative media, social media, telephone calls, emails, participate in rallies, or become a poll watcher to ensure election integrity, just to name a few. Now is the time to put the pedal to the metal.

The GOP is fully capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

By Tom Williams at Right Wire Report

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Blue State Conservative. The BSC is not responsible for, and does not verify the accuracy of, any information presented.

Notice: This article may contain commentary that reflects the author’s opinion.

Image by JamesDeMers from Pixabay

All other images are courtesy of Right Wire Report.