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Recession

Reality Bites: Team Biden In Denial As Economy Officially Enters Recession

Biden’s Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has been singing a similar tune while playing the semantics game. And President Joe Biden himself joined in the fun on Monday, stating, “We’re not going to be in a recession. My hope is we go from this rapid growth to a steady growth.” Got that? Not only are we not in a recession, we’re in a period of “rapid growth.” Fantasy is much more appealing than facts if you’re a Democrat.

Still Think ‘The Great Reset’ Is Nothing But A Conspiracy Theory? These Facts Say Otherwise

When we look at GDP growth over the past few decades, it has been fairly linear (the black line below). Some falsely believe debt has been growing at the same rate as GDP. However, when looking at debt creation, it has been exponential. In other words, trendline debt growth keeps getting steeper and steeper over time (the red trendlines below), creating the exponential arc pattern from horizontal to vertical.

What’s Next? An Ordinary Recession Might Be The Best We Can Hope For

Remember, markets are forward-looking to what might happen 6 to 18 months into the future. Most of the Fed’s rate hikes are already priced into the markets. The market is already thinking that the induced recession caused by the rate hikes will force the Fed to only lower them to fight the evident recession they created. More free money is coming – fuel for the markets. This is what the markets are digesting now.

Chicken Little and the Democrats In Denial: The GDP Is Falling!

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on June 8, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.61 percentage points to -1.62 percentage points.